Tips, predictions and odds for Tai Tuivasa vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Tai Tuivasa vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik is a heavyweight bout on this UFC 305 undercard from the RAC Arena in Perth, Australia.

After four straight losses, Tuivasa may be fighting for his UFC career against the dangerous Rozenstriuk in a fight where either fighter needs just one good punch to end things.

The UFC odds for tonight's fight have Rozenstruik as the favorite (-230) and Tuivasa as the underdog (+180). Here are my best free predictions for UFC 305: Tuivasa vs. Rozenstruik.

Tuivasa vs Rozenstruik prediction and pick

Combat analysis

Time has not been kind to Tuivasa, who many thought had established himself as a player after a second-round knockout of Derrick Lewis in 2022. Since then, he has lost four fights in a row and has been finished each time. It's clear that Tuivasa doesn't belong anywhere near the top of a weak heavyweight division, but the same could be said about fellow underachiever Rozenstruik.

The two will probably brawl, and it will be a sloppy horse fight, but Tuivasa is so laborious with his hand speed that it's hard to imagine him actually being able to outrun Rozenstruik.

While Rozenstruik is not a world-class fighter, he is just as strong and has better conditioning and punch resistance. Neither fighter can be proud of their defense, but a major reason for Tuivasa's loss is that he announces his punches too much, making them hard to miss.

This will work for Rozenstruik, who throws his best punches on the counter. While Tuivasa will close the distance quickly and neither fighter will bother with takedowns or other unusual moves as they out-punch each other, Rozenstruik should find an opening early and make his opponent pay for it.

I haven't seen much positive from Tuivasa in his recent downturn, and if he can't do it in his most winnable fight of the last two years, that doesn't bode well for him. Still, Rozenstruik is the pick.

Best best analysis

This fight will not go the full distance. This is a heavyweight fight with Tuivasa showing signs of a broken jaw and has been knocked down and finished in his last four fights. There is a chance Rozenstruik will hold back his offense early on to help Tuivasa's timing, but he works with a thumping jab and a better technical style than Tuivasa.

Odds for Tai Tuivasa vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Method of victory	Tuivasa	Rosebush
To win directly	+180	-230
Win by KO/TKO	+245	-160
Win by decision	+1,050	+790
Win through submission	+2,400	+2,250
Pull	+2,500	+2,500

Odds from 8-17.

Tai Tuivasa vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik, story from the tape

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