UFC Predictions for Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivak 2

UFC Predictions for Fight Night Las Vegas 95 – Tybura vs. Spivak 2:

The UFC returns to its APEX facility this week for UFC LV95, an 11-fight card featuring an international selection of lesser-known UFC fighters. Three fights will feature men 170 pounds (or over) competing in the smaller 25-foot diameter APEX Octagon. In contrast, the remaining fights will feature smaller athletes where the wrestler/grappler might have a slight advantage. Let's take a look at this week's UFC predictions.

The favorites were 12-1 last week and are 212-95-8 for 2024, making investing in underdogs a risky proposition.

The digital results for 2024 are 19-16 +7.73u: I am profitably navigating through the difficult chalk parade of the first half of the year.

Sergei Spivac -145 vs. Marcin Tybura +120

Heavyweight (265 pounds) Main Event

This is a rematch of a 2020 fight in which Polish veteran Tybura, then a seasoned 34-year-old UFC veteran, introduced 25-year-old Moldovan newcomer Spivac to the heavyweight division by taking a close point victory over the “Polar Bear,” who was fighting his third UFC fight.

In that first fight, Tybura's odds closed at -125. Tybura used all of his stamina, cunning, and experience to defeat the younger, more energetic, but less experienced Spivac. Since then, each of them has won the fights they were supposed to win, losing top opportunities to athletes more gifted than them in terms of heavyweight MMA weaponry and tactics.

Four years later, Tybura, now even more experienced at 37, is ready to defend his eighth place in the division against his old nemesis Spivac, who happens to be ranked ninth.

In a small cage, big, lumbering men with evil intentions create excitement in the early stages of the fight, but after about six minutes, that fight could turn into a slow dance at the high school prom.

These two mammoth heavyweights are neither physically nor, to be honest, athletically dynamic. After the first six to seven minutes, we witness groping, punching and maneuvering in the small cage once the sharpness of the two fighters' strikes has subsided.

When this fight is over, I believe Serghei Spivac will win on points, in a battle that will mean a lot to both the winner and the defeated, but not much to anyone except us investors.

I feel revenge.

UFC prediction: Spivac -145

Overall in this fight: 3.5 rounds under -130

UFC Prediction: Lean Over

Jose “Chepe” Mariscal -210 vs. Damon Jackson +180

Featherweight (145 pounds)

This new co-main event will be a massive clash of styles as a small, muscular Mariscal attempts to incapacitate the crafty and beguiling submission artist Jackson.

Jackson is the battle-hardened veteran who will stand four inches taller than Mariscal. He will have a two-inch arm prominence to match his four-inch leg dominance, which in previous fights has allowed him to use those thin limbs to pin down necks, heads, arms and legs.

Jackson won his last fight against Alex Hernadez and showed much better striking power, but lost his two previous fights against Dan Ige and Billy Quarantillo respectively. He works with a solid jab, heart-pounding teep kicks and forward pressure when the fight is going in his favor.

In Chepe Mariscal we have a human chainsaw. Chepe is short, stocky, forward-moving and as buff as an anvil. He charges forward with one intention: to attack the opponent with powerful punches/kicks that produce stunning results. Chepe “does” fights, but in this fight I think we will see him approach Jackson cautiously at first. He must not force himself to lose consciousness to submissions while trying to engage.

Jackson will need to use a stiff jab to neutralize Chape's pressure inside and keep his distance so his elbows and knees can catch the crazed Mariscal as he penetrates. Penetration is key to this fight, as Chepe ultimately wants to be inside and throw powerbombs at Jackson, and Jackson may want Chepe to work on him, as that task is much easier against a powerful opponent.

Jackson's length, experience and level of competition give him a great chance to put Mariscal in his place in this fight, but he will have to survive a few rounds of pure ferocity to do so unless he can find the aggressive striker's neck while the fight is still early and the skin is still dry.

Mariscal's momentum from three straight wins against legit UFC competitors, combined with his compact frame, extreme aggressiveness, forward pressure, granite chin and tremendous power, makes me believe that Chepe, a man who has never been submitted, could pull off that fourth straight win in the UFC.

Overall in this fight: 2.5 laps over -125

Danny Barlow -340 vs. Nikolay Veretennikov +285

Welterweight (170 pounds)

Barlow is young, fast, powerful and on the rise, although he has not yet been truly tested in the UFC.

Short-notice fighter Veretennikov has few credentials other than winning a couple of fights and being available at very short notice to replace Uros Medic. Veretennikov is a durable, tough and methodical finisher who is looking to make a name for himself at this late stage of his fighting career.

In this fight we have a big name who will have to look dominant, but will the last-minute substitute be able to cause an upset, put in a solid performance or lose?

Overall in this fight: 1.5 laps. Over -210.

This total is based on expectations for Barlow. I believe Veretennikov has much more endurance than one and a half rounds.

My final releases and UFC predictions for this week's UFC LV95 will be available on GambLou.com on Friday at 12:00 PM PT..

Thanks for reading and enjoy the fights this week!